Why the Andrews authorities might not be praying for an Albanese win

The political calculation is easy. If Victorian are offended at Morrison, in the event that they consider the state is being ignored and short-changed, in the event that they see the prime minister as Sydney-centric, they are going to be much less inclined to gravitate in direction of Morrison’s Liberal and Nationals colleagues in Victoria.

Where potential, the Andrews authorities likes to keep away from speaking immediately concerning the state opposition, depriving them of political oxygen. The Morrison authorities represents a potent proxy.

Prime Minister Scott Morrison and Opposition Leader Anthony Albanese.

Prime Minister Scott Morrison and Opposition Leader Anthony Albanese.Credit:Alex Ellinghausen

What occurs if the polls are proper and Anthony Albanese wins? By the time the state elections rolls round in November, Albanese would have been prime minister for about six months. Andrews would now not have an adversary to rail towards in Canberra – at the very least to not the identical extent as now.

It is kind of potential that by November any gloss may have worn off a hypothetical Albanese authorities, notably with the federal price range in equally parlous state to the Victorian price range.

Nor does it appear to be an Albanese authorities can be tripping over itself at hand out money to Victoria. For instance, Morrison’s particular GST deal sending Western Australia billions of {dollars} further on the expense of taxpayers and japanese states will stay in place which ever facet wins.


On Tuesday, Shadow Treasurer Jim Chalmers informed the National Press Club that federal Labor wouldn’t be unwinding the prevailing carve-up, regardless of claims from Victoria it’s grossly unfair.

“We don’t intend to reopen that deal that’s been done,” Chalmers mentioned.

Andrews has what is likely to be described as a strong working relationship with Albanese. The two males first grew to become acquainted a few years in the past, when Andrews was working as a staffer to Albanese’s former political ally, Alan Griffin.

But speak to Labor insiders and so they’ll inform you Andrews is kind of ready to struggle or work constructively with both facet if it means getting what he desires for the state. For Andrews, it’s a level of delight that has not sometimes rankled federal Labor colleagues.


The federal-state carve-up of well being funding is one other space that would result in tensions. The state authorities is demanding a 50:50 funding cut up, versus the present carve-up which sees the states shouldering 55 per cent.

As one senior authorities supply put it: “50:50 funding will be prosecuted just as hard no matter who wins, and an Albanese government shouldn’t expect a red carpet in Victoria unless they’re bringing cash.”

Even so, prosecuting the argument on well being funding towards a federal Labor authorities can be a extra delicate enterprise for the Andrews authorities.

The newest Resolve Political Monitor, revealed in The Age this week, suggests the state opposition may lastly be gaining some momentum. Labor’s main has fallen 4 factors to 37 per cent, whereas the Coalition’s main vote edged as much as 33 per cent, from 31 per cent within the final ballot.

Early days, however what is evident is Scott Morrison isn’t any good friend to the Victorian Liberals. Campaign appearances by the Prime Minister in Victoria over the following six weeks are more likely to be perfunctory. And if federal Labor wins, the political panorama will probably be significantly altered for either side within the lead-up to the November state ballot.

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